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Niners’ run game, Bengals’ pass attack are keys to victory

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It’s been quite the week of online discourse between the “wins are a QB stat” crowd and those with functioning brain cells, following a divisional round of games where Bills QB Josh Allen lost with a near-flawless performance and Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo won in spite of posting an 11.9 QBR and his offense not scoring a single touchdown against Green Bay. Luckily for those who want to put their money where their mouth is, BetMGM offers player props where you can bet on actual stats.

Virtually every bettor is fading Garoppolo this weekend

Only 3% of people are taking the over on Jimmy G’s 233.5 passing yards prop against the Rams. He exceeded that mark in nine of his 15 regular season outings this year, but he’s 0-for-5 in his playoff career, averaging 146 passing yards per game. The good news for over bettors is that Garoppolo has hit this prop in five of his six starts against the Rams.

Nintey-six percent of money is on teammate Deebo Samuel to eclipse 39.5 rushing yards — a number he’s gone over just four times this season. The wide receiver never saw more than eight carries in regular season games, but has gotten double-digit totes in each of San Francisco‘s playoff tilts. When the Niners faced a crucial third-and-7 in the waning minutes of their game against the Packers, it was Samuel who Kyle Shanahan entrusted with the rock. It paid off, as Samuel rushed for nine yards and a first down, setting up San Francisco for a game-winning field goal as time expired.

While the betting public are backing the 49ers run game, they’re heavily invested in the Rams’ passing attack. Ninety-four percent of tickets are rooting for wideout Odell Beckham Jr. to go over 52.5 receiving yards and for tight end Tyler Higbee to surpass 41.5 receiving yards.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging 146 passing yards per game in his playoff career. (Steve Roberts/USA TODAY Sports)
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging 146 passing yards per game in his playoff career. (Steve Roberts/USA TODAY Sports)

Sounding the sirens for a Cincinnati air raid

Bettors are expecting Bengals QB Joe Burrow to light up the Chiefs defense like he lights up cigars after a big win. His yardage prop is set at 286.5 passing yards and 98% of the money is on the over. The top pick in the 2020 draft eviscerated Kansas City for 446 passing yards and four touchdowns in Week 17’s 34-31 comeback win. Burrow’s favorite receiver, former LSU teammate Ja’Marr Chase, set the rookie record for most receiving yards in a game, recording 266 receiving yards and three touchdowns in that contest. A significant majority of bettors are hoping for a repeat, with 96% of tickets on Chase to go over 87.5 receiving yards.

Chase’s prop actually opened at 82.5, but has jumped five yards. Bengals running back Joe Mixon has seen his prop drop by five, from 61.5 to 56.5 rushing yards, as bettors pound the number down. The under has 53% of tickets but 75% of the handle, signifying some big money betting against Mixon, who’s failed to hit this number in his last three games.

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference.

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